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Overview
This report is focused on forecasting demand for specific types of carrier-classnetwork transmission equipment: ROADMS, DWDM, Routers and Switches. To make that forecast it will investigate the demand parameters of this situation, which are primarily traffic forecasts. After reviewing the regulatory climate (Net Neutrality), and the market demand, the Report will look at capital expenditure forecasts as a surrogate for Supply. Then it will provide forecasts for various classes (ROADMs, DWDM, Routers and Switches) of optical network equipment in this environment.
The report will provide:
- Equipment descriptions and sales forecasts for ROADMS, DWDM, Routers, and Switches through 2020.
- A discussion of Net Neutrality, the players, the issues, and its
impact on equipment sales.
- Traffic forecasts for the North American Internet through 2020
- N.A. and World forecasts for Mobile Traffic, Advanced Access Architecture lines(FiOS, U-Verse, Google), High-Speed lines (XDSL and cable modems) and International Traffic (North America only) through 2020.
- Capital Expenditure forecasts for the major telecom companies through 2020.
- Listing of Major Vendors in the Transmission Equipment space.
In addition to the changes in traffic sources, patterns, and absolute quantity, there are many changes thatThe general rule of large numbers indicates that it gets harder and harder to continue growing at the same growth rate (much more so at an increasing growth rate), simply because of the ever-increasing size of the base. Therefore, as the reader looks at these charts, he will (in most cases) see continued growth, just at diminished rates.
Internet traffic is beginning to slow (in growth rate,) tending toward the low teens, for reasons to be explored in the opening chapters on drivers. With the lower growth rate of traffic, one will see lower investment growth following in transmission equipment, as the market will remain cautious after the rather recent bitter experiences. In addition, as the Report also shows that the specter of Net Neutrality hangs over the market, with the doubt it is creating causing even more caution as to investment and purchases.
This report will discuss the very current topic of Network Neutrality, which is much in the headlines as this is being written, and its forecasted impact on network equipment sales.
This Report will then examine traffic on the network and, through analysis, show that traffic from four major sources (AAA lines, H-H lines, Mobile lines and International) is responsible for the vast preponderance of traffic and traffic growth. Forecasts will then be provided (thru 2020) for these classes of traffic and for the Internet as a whole.
Based on the information from the traffic forecasts, the uncertainty from regulation (Net Neutrality) and the capital investment plans and forecasts, the Report will then provide equipment sales forecasts (units and dollars) for ROADMs, DWDM, Routers, and Switches (all carrier class) thru 2020 for North America and for the World. Detailed descriptions of each type of equipment being forecast is also provided.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Table of Figures
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports
The Lightwave Network
The Lightwave Series of Reports
General Reports on the Network
General Market Reports
Specific Systems Reports
Introduction
NETWORK NEUTRALITY
What Is Network Neutrality?
What Has Happened Recently?
Who are the Major Players?
What are the Issues?
Technical Issues
Other Issues
Impact on Equipment Market
DEMAND - OPTICAL NETWORK TRAFFIC
AAA Access Lines
Mobile Devices
International Traffic
H-S Access Lines
Demand Growth - Summary
SUPPLY - NETWORK INVESTMENT
Carrier's Investments
SUPPLY - CAPITAL INVESTMENT BY THE RBOCS
Capital Investments
Importance of Wireline
RBOC Investment Plans and Forecast
AT&T Investment Plans and Forecast
Verizon Investment Plans and Forecast
Loss of Main Lines
Summary Thoughts on Investment
EQUIPMENT DESCRIPTIONS AND FORECASTS
ROADM Description
Types of ROADMs
First Generation ROADM — PLC-Based ROADMs
Colorless vs. Colored Ports
Other Names
Benefits and Problems with PLC ROADMs
The Second-Generation ROADM — Blocker-Based ROADMs
Other Names
Alternative Designs for Blockers
Problems with Blocker-based ROADMs
Third-Generation ROADM — Wavelength Selective Switch (WSS)
Other Names
Problems and Benefits of WSS ROADMs
Fourth-Generation ROADMS — Edge ROADM (ER)
Summary of ROADM Features by Utilization
Summary of ROADM Types by Generation
Summary of ROADM Description
Summary of ROADM Types by Generation
Summary of ROADM Description
ROADM Forecast
ROADM Systems — US Forecast
US Edge ROADMs
US Market Forecast
World Market Forecast
DWDM
DWDM Description
Physical Components
METRO DWDM
What is Metro DWDM?
Types of DWDM -40 and 100 Gbps Channels
DWDM Forecast
North American Forecast
World DWDM Forecast
Switches
Switch Description
IP and Ethernet Switches
Switch Forecast
North American Switch Forecast
World Switch Forecast
ROUTERS
What is a Router?
Why Use Routers?
What is a Terabit Router?
Traditional Router Technology
Traditional Router Applications
Router Forecast
North American Forecast
World Router Forecast
VENDORS
System Vendor Listing
Adva Optical Networking
Alcatel-Lucent
Auxora, Inc.
CALIENT Technologies
Ciena
Cisco
ECI
Ericsson
Fujitsu
Infinera
Juniper
Huawei Technologies
Kingfisher International
Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) — Meriton – Now Xtera
Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)
Meriton Networks
Movaz Networks (ADVA)
NEC America Inc.
Nistica
Nokia Siemens (NSN)
Nortel (Now dissolved)
Performance Motion Devices
Tellabs
Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)
ZTE
APPENDIX I, TRAFFIC STATISTICS RELATIONSHIPS
APPENDIX II, DATA TRAFFIC FUNDAMENTALS
Internet Traffic Calculations
Bits and Bytes
Transfer Rate
Busy Hour Traffic
Protocol Efficiencies
Statistical Multiplexing
Peaking
Summary of Concepts – Traffic Fundamentals
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Lightwave Network
Figure 2: Traffic Forecast - AAA Lines
Figure 3: Mobile Traffic Forecast
Figure 4: Mobile - Wireline Access
Figure 5: International Traffic
Figure 6: Data Traffic from Major Sources
Figure 7: Comparison of Four Major Sources to Total Traffic
Figure 8: Internet Growth Rate — New Forecast
Figure 9: Summary Points on Demand
Figure 10: Supply Demand Relationship
Figure 11: Network Showing Wireless Access
Figure 12: Wireless Data Forecast
Figure 13: AT&T Capital Investment 2009-2014
Figure 14: Verizon Wireline Capital Expenditures 2009-2014
Figure 15: Verizon Wireline Negative Growth
Figure 16: Verizon Wireline Revenue Negative Growth
Figure 17: Verizon Revenue per Wireline
Figure 19: ROADM General Configuration
Figure 20: PLC Based ROADM
Figure 21: Detailed 'Blocker' ROADM Architecture
Figure 22: Alternative M-Z Diode-based Broadcast ROADM
Figure 23: WSS Structure
Figure 24: WSS-based ROADM
Figure 25: WSS-based Multi-degree Node Interconnection
Figure 26: Typical Blocker ROADM
Figure 27: WSS Added to Blocker
Figure 28: Summary of ROADM Types by Utilization
Figure 29: Four Generations of ROADMs
Figure 30: ROADM System Unit Forecast — US
Figure 31: US Market — Change in Predominant Type of ROADM over Time
Figure 32: US Edge ROADMs Systems
Figure 33: Price Forecast for ROADMs
Figure 34: ROADMs Market Forecast — US
Figure 35: ROADM Market — US – By Technology
Figure 36: World ROADM Systems by Type
Figure 37: World ROADM Market
Figure 38: Typical DWDM Layout
Figure 39: Metro DWDM Typical Layout
Figure 40: Metro DWDM System Characteristics
Figure 41: North American DWM System Ends
Figure 42: North American DWDM Market
Figure 43: US DWDM Forecast by Channel Speed
Figure 44: DWDM - World Forecast - System Ends
Figure 45: DWDM World Market Forecast
Figure 46: DWDM World Forecast by Speed
Figure 47: North American Switch Market Forecast
Figure 48: North American Switches - Units Forecast
Figure 49: World Switch Market
Figure 50: World Switches – Units
Figure 51: Router Layout
Figure 52: Router Applications
Figure 53: North American Routers - Total – Units
Figure 54: North American Routers Total Market
Figure 55: North American Router Market - By Types
Figure 56: World Router Forecast – Units
Figure 57: World Router Market – Total
Figure 58: World Router Market - By Types
Figure 59: Traffic/Speed Relationships
Figure 60: Example of Various Traffic Sizes
Figure 61: Multiples of Byte
Figure 62: New Transfer Rate Forecast
Figure 63: Summary of Concepts
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